I'm very happy to report that since January 14 of this year, little of consequence has happened and few interesting pictures have been taken. This saves me time in telling the story of the past five months.
That is the one interesting picture I took, though there is also a neat video of a fancy hairy caterpillar for which the photo below will have to suffice for now. Those are ladybugs near Fishbowls Camp in the Sespe Wilderness, just four days ago.
Ok. Now that the update has some photos I’m free to fill in the thousands of words.
Michael Bean died in February. That was a significant event. He was a mainstay of the Isla Vista Community. Afraid of the cost of health insurance, attempting to stay off the grid and off the public dole, he waited too long to be seen for what he was eventually aware was something serious. Those who knew him who might have taken action delayed just a bit too long as well. Phyllis S. organized a memorial service for him and wrote up an obituary. I helped by designing a flyer and attempting to look up lost relatives and biographical details (no success).
At the time I was still attempting to make money with money by following some foolish ideas on r/wallstreetbets. I did make some successful trades, but mostly I lost. And that guy u/wsbgod I mentioned to some of you? Turns out he was probably a fake and his amazing record of success, fabricated. I gave up on options for a bit, went back to fiddling with ethereum-based projects. And attended a few talks and gatherings put on by Cameron and PG of Blockchain Acceleration Foundation.
I did manage one or two overnight hikes to a spot partway up the Cold Spring Trail as well.
The coronavirus shutdown came, Andrea went off to stay at her parents’ where she could work from home and she’s been gone ever since. We used to talk pretty regularly but now she’s gone silent. That’s just been for the past week and a half. We are not the best fit, it is true. So perhaps it is time we moved on. For my part, I seem to have found a new hobby that keeps me occupied, which has been at least for the past month and a week, making money with money.
This success has been thanks to my past failures and the discovery of Ophir Gottlieb. I signed up for his Trade Machine a month and a week ago, and for his CML Pro service, and in that time I’ve managed to triple my account value after having had little success and a lot of failure trying to deal with the failure of my buy and hold and sometimes trade my ether crypto non-strategy since winter 2017-2018 when the huge bubble began to pop. I came across Ophir from somehow coming across a tweet by MintDragon. You may immediately notice and be grateful that Ophir does not waste your or his time, unlike just about everyone else I’ve encountered who attempts to make money helping people trade options. For example, I’ve gotten somewhat involved with several others: Wendy Kirkland, Chuck Hughes, well maybe just those two, and attempted to implement strategies they teach, but without any deep level of diligence.
And in addition to those purveyors of options strategies, I managed to get on an assortment of stock tips lists which have this standard practice of making you watch a long video or read an endless ad to attempt to get some useful information out of it. In a happy dénouement to these clouds of obfuscation, recently I discovered The Stock Gumshoe which goes through all those teaser ads to figure out what they might be shillling and whether the trade they’re shilling has any validity.
Ok. TLDR: since following Ophir I’ve tripled my account, though the way I’m doing it could lead me to lose half tomorrow, and in fact I did have a 30% drawdown in one account just last week. But I didn’t sell, at least not right then, and today was a new high in both. I use Robinhood and ThinkOrSwim with TD Ameritrade. Both have their advantages and both fail to work from time to time, especially at busy market opens.
Also, there will be a CML Pro webinar on the 18th, basically tomorrow. Members who’ve already experienced one seem quite excited about it. (Honestly though, I don’t understand why people who find success with his system are mentioning it on Twitter. I don’t think he’s paying them. I don’t think they’re fake accounts.) So you might want to sign up and see what he has to say. If you’re not free when it is happening you’ll get a recording. You can email in questions ahead of time. If you don’t want to spend any $$ you can get a gist of what is going on on twitter. But the info on CML Pro has given me some depth of understanding and confidence that has been useful in making significant bets.
Plus the government has been supporting the market recently so there is that.
I have kept a spreadsheet of some of my Trade Machine trades (my early losses and wins are not there yet), however that does not include some heavy bets on CML Pro Picks, mainly FSLY, that has helped the account grow as well.
I also started a subreddit, r/CMLTradeMachine to discuss the use of that system.
Ok. So I left to go on my usual hike, but turned around. Not because I left a girlfriend behind—she’s been gone a while. But because I can walk on the beach to Bacara and back, (9 miles roundtrip) at low tide or even further at lower tide and look at my phone or listen to audiobooks pretty much the whole way if I want to—that kind of distracted walking is not a good idea in Los Padres NF.
Plus, I found that that routine leaves me in pretty decent shape, even though it is flat, for climbing the mountains (at least below 8000 feet).
Also, I have the option of swimming in the ocean, which I pretty much do every day if I make it out of camp.
And if I make it out of camp before the market opens, then I make it out. Otherwise I sit around until 1pm watching the prices move.
Drawbacks: the routine here is somewhat boring and I continue to eat too much while in town. However the variety of food here vs what I can carry on my hikes and find in smaller towns definitely motivates me to return here. Also we get a marine layer and gray days (May Grey, June Gloom). But one brilliant thought I had on my recent hike, why not take an Uber or a Lyft up to the top of the mountains here (just a few miles’ ride) if I want to escape the gloom and the car noise of town yet am too put off by the hard work required by biking or hiking?
Ok, That’s the story here. Also will list some of the audiobooks I’ve listened to because they are a significant part of where my mind spends time.
Ted Chiang short stories
The Three Body Trilogy
_She Said_
_Proof of Conspiracy_ by Seth Abramson
_The Man Who Solved The Market_
_Flash Crash_
And others I’m not mentioning, there were a lot.
Also significant has been home improvements undertaken to make the estate a more pleasant place to quarantine. We now have a pull-up branch and gymnastic rings. We already had some dumbbells. I have a nice shaded hammock spot for when the sun is bright. I’ve continued to test solar panels, switching to Renogy from Suntatics. Suntactics S5s kept breaking and cost eight times as much, although they would replace them (if I nagged them a bit) every time they broke. Two 5-watt $10 Renogy panels replaced the two $80 Suntactics panels I had been using. For in-town use I also got two 10-watt Renogy $20 panels to use to make charging a bit quicker. I have yet to test the Renogy panels as much as I have the S5s though.
Goals for the next six months: Just keep growing the account. Money can be a kind of power and can increase one’s choices. Plus it is a bit more worthwhile and engages with the world more than just repeatedly playing Polytopia.
I think that is all I have to say. Life is decent here and this may be a new stage in life where I don’t bother to wander and have something somewhat like a regular job—watching the market. I don’t think I’ll ever be like Mark Minervini who has never missed a trading day in 30 years. I admit I think it is shallow. I left on my recent hike to see if I could leave it be and just adopt long-term strategies. And see if I could read a book. Maybe I will try that again at some point.
Also, it is a bit of a sufferfest out there in the woods—poison oak, poodle dog bush, ticks, potential rattlesnakes, bright blazing sun, heavy pack and bags, feet that dry out and crack if not cared for frequently. Sometimes it’s a good, beautiful sufferfest and reminds me I can still be somewhat tough and manly and walk 20-plus miles in a day to get somewhere if need be. It is also nice to get good and tired, good and hungry, and to sleep in beautiful, peaceful places.
I do have fun meeting some women on Hinge. That hasn’t ever gotten further than a phonecall, but still satisfies some sort of relationship need or hope. And when I go out on my rounds and my walk there are many people to see and a few friends to meet.
I’m grateful for the Black Lives Matter / Defund the Police demonstrations—I sincerely hope progress is made and becomes permanent on police de-militarization, de-lethalization, and in eliminating systemic racism. As a somewhat unusual person I have a reflexive resentment of white patri- and matriarchy which in my experience tend to want to brush aside or squash any deviation from their view of the norm, and they’ll call the cops on oddness. And the cops, if they have one, will call their helicopter. My personal takeaway: do not live anywhere where the PD can fly a helicopter whenever “there’s a weird or dangerous person on the loose.” Pretty sick how much money has been devoted to police departments. According to the latest SB Independent, police funding even here has grown to be something like 30% of the city budget (“$145 million budget, $47 million of which was earmarked for the police”). In an interesting twist, in another article a county supervisor mentions that they’re lucky they’ve got revenue from cannabis cultivation to keep the government afloat given the coronavirus’ economic impact.
Now there must be an uplifting or inspiring note to end on somehow.
It’s a poor picture, but if you squint you can see that it is Poodle Dog Bush overgrowing the trail near the top of the Horn Canyon Trail. And the Dog also is at the top of the trail on the other side of the ridge (Rose-Lion Trail). I made it through and only suffered minor rashiness this time. Even so, on the way out I didn’t go back that way and walked the road, part of it the 33, for about 20 miles to Meiners Oaks.
All in all though, I just wanted to let you know I made it back out.
I hope your summer is a good one.